Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.675015 2.841984 3.024503 3.240983 3.493733 3.783504 4.147104
2025-03-09 2.432247 2.651403 2.905549 3.229023 3.641219 4.167569 4.927856
2025-03-16 2.255827 2.497716 2.788739 3.176818 3.703029 4.433821 5.629650
2025-03-23 2.170473 2.436766 2.768036 3.229775 3.896302 4.911090 6.851901
2025-03-30 2.052692 2.322162 2.663692 3.152053 3.884231 5.067607 7.607036
2025-04-06 1.950355 2.218484 2.562934 3.064874 3.839501 5.152989 8.275258
2025-04-13 1.873744 2.142434 2.492096 3.011112 3.835634 5.305777 9.241431
2025-04-20 1.840878 2.120798 2.492052 3.058574 3.999977 5.823689 11.973666
2025-04-27 1.827727 2.123713 2.524910 3.157435 4.268619 6.676611 19.092409
2025-05-04 1.787188 2.086831 2.498149 3.159358 4.361726 7.172748 29.657179
2025-05-11 1.750826 2.053594 2.474077 3.162483 4.456925 7.732124 70.616870
2025-05-18 1.693376 1.988621 2.399955 3.076762 4.361356 7.687795 120.021032
2025-05-25 1.661825 1.959940 2.379948 3.083526 4.465354 8.376973 NaN
2025-06-01 1.629006 1.928157 2.353638 3.077448 4.542675 9.060793 NaN
2025-06-08 1.588677 1.884104 2.306467 3.031114 4.523305 9.367724 NaN
2025-06-15 1.573935 1.875727 2.312813 3.079090 4.728949 10.936862 NaN
2025-06-22 1.532852 1.827952 2.256088 3.008876 4.639750 10.914031 NaN
2025-06-29 1.491886 1.779262 2.196295 2.929865 4.520501 10.659555 NaN
2025-07-06 1.459851 1.742686 2.154156 2.881016 4.471397 10.817833 NaN
2025-07-13 1.450189 1.738191 2.161776 2.924146 4.661521 12.841553 NaN
2025-07-20 1.450630 1.748320 2.192737 3.013751 4.999565 17.662121 NaN
2025-07-27 1.432906 1.730979 2.178799 3.015491 5.094212 20.860332 NaN
2025-08-03 1.416277 1.714745 2.165933 3.018318 5.193967 25.597375 NaN